Tracking the Characteristics of Economic Growth Vulnerability to COVID-19: A Preliminary Analysis

Carlos Alberto Carrasco, Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García


Como respuesta a la expansión global de COVID-19, los gobiernos alrededor del mundo han implementado diversas medidas de aislamiento social generando una caída en la actividad económica sin precedentes recientes. Consecuentemente, los pronósticos de crecimiento económico para 2020 se han ajustado a la baja en la mayoría de los países, aunque la magnitud de la caída ha sido diferente. En este trabajo nos enfocamos en el análisis de la vulnerabilidad económica ante COVID-19, medida como el cambio en los pronósticos de crecimiento, y sus determinantes para una muestra de 194 países. Resaltamos las características del sector externo y de la política macroeconómica que se asocian a una mayor vulnerabilidad económica durante la pandemia.

Palabras clave

COVID-19; pronósticos de crecimiento económico; política macroeconómica; estructura económica.

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