© 2021 Elsevier B.V.Recycling and selective collection rates in touristic islands are low, and they have to be increased to move them towards a more circular economy. This paper attempts to determine whether it will be possible to achieve the European Union's (EU) legally binding targets regarding the different fractions of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the two Spanish regions with the highest per capita MSW generation rates. After reviewing the MSW generation literature in touristic islands, the driving forces affecting MSW generation in the Balearics and Canary archipelagos from 2000 to 2018 are identified. Their evolution until 2035 is forecasted, using a methodology which combines econometric models, System Dynamics and Scenario Analysis. Results reveal that the biggest MSW generator in both archipelagos is the touristic population, followed by the resident population in the Balearics, and by the per capita income in the Canaries. Then, by using simulations to create different scenarios, the annual ratios to be reached by 2035 are estimated for each MSW fraction in both archipelagos. The current low recycling rates (15.81% in the Balearics and 11.18% in the Canaries) would have to be increased by an annual average of 2.89% and 3.16% respectively, to achieve the compulsory 65% target established by the MSW EU Directive for 2035. Therefore, both territories are currently far from the right pathway to meet the EU goals. However, the European Green Deal has to promote circular economy projects that help achieve each type of waste targets.